Some FR play on Stars ...

I'm still not back to doing the challenge, but I played some FR on Stars (just to try it out). I won't actually get back to 100NL 6-max until early June.

I played this hand and the following conversation followed:
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1123879

triverd: like
triverd: what are you thinking
TheXC: I was going to float you.
triverd: that's a terrible idea
TheXC: Figured you would check the turn and I could bet.
TheXC: Why?
triverd: i don't get floated
TheXC: Dry flop
TheXC: you just did
triverd: no i didn't
triverd: you got lucky
triverd: i knew what you were doing
TheXC: How?
triverd: because i'm good

Some heads-up play ...

I'm taking a short break from my challenge due to my trip to Europe. I've played a few sessions of HU for two reasons ...

1. It's a part of my game that I feel is very weak.

2. It has the potential to be very profitable.

3. It forces me to navigate situations where are a lot more marginal.

So far it's been very frustrating because I've gotten sucked out on hard core. I have a hard time dealing with losing and it just hurts me to lose a big pot when I'm favored. In HU, there are just many more situations where I'm getting my $$ in with an high pocket pair and find myself again a naked ace. I seem to let the suckouts get to me - I guess I just don't have the experience yet - I'm sure it was like this at the beginning of 6-max play.

Brian watched me for a bit and I learned a lot from him. I think he's an excellent HU player and the strategy feels so different from 6-max.

I guess I have have to get used to the swings and then I'll be alright.

I played against HeroCall ... he was PSYCHO AGGRO. It was pretty easy to play him though - I played a lot more passive and value bet the shit out of him (and overbet once I realized he can't fold):

http://www.pokerhand.org/?1120006

http://www.pokerhand.org/?1120007

http://www.pokerhand.org/?1120009

Heading to Europe

My fiance and I are heading to Europe to meet my family. I will be gone for two weeks until June 6th. I will not play any poker until then, but will still post to CR and such.

"Check it out Grandma! I got me one of them fancy American brides! Ship it!"

Day 4 of 100NL

I misplayed two hands, but overall the play was terrible. I played a short session and netted about two buy-ins.

Hahaha:
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1103042

Not really sure what the correct turn play is here:
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1103048

Post about Poker Tracker Stats

I wrote a post on CR about PokerTracker basics. I want to link it here just so that I have a good reference point to it later on.

1875 hands down at 100NL

Meh session. Got called down REALLY lightly in a few spots and had to fold overpairs in others.

Big winner:
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1096798

Big loser:
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1096801

I had Brian sweat me and it's pretty amazing how well he was reading the other players. He would say things like "Well ... what sucks here is that he's got TT and he's not folding." He was dead on 3-4 times.

Brian makes a correct read:
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1096645

He put him on a flush draw and read his small turn bet as wanting to control the pot. He said "raise him".

Me: $20?
Brian: $28? ... and call a shove

~1K hands down at 100NL

Here are my numbers through the first 950 hands at 100NL:

I played a lot of small pot poker today (+$100) - didn't win a single pot over $30 - nothing really interesting happened. I did open up my middle position numbers a little more.

Day 1 of 100NL

I decided that I really wanted to have a good session so I made the following adjustments:

1. I only played 4 tables as opposed to 6 or 8 to work on my reads and to really focus.

2. I played super nitty post flop. For example:

KK OOP with an Ace on the board:
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1089120

Am I ahead there? Probably. Do I want to get floated after I make a c-bet? Nope.

3. Didn't really make a lot of CB's after the flop if the flop didn't hit me.

4. Tightened up in middle position (8/8) and first position (3/3), but I was still 37/36 on the button and 27/26 in the cutoff. Next session I think I'll start opening up my middle position.

5. Quit early after < 500 hands.

Done with 50NL

Meh.


I talked to Hookem148 and told him I'm very unhappy with the results and would like to play another 10,000 hands at 50NL. He said since I decided to play 10K hands at each level I should stick to that. I think he's right. So ... 100NL is next.

I tightened up more at 50NL and I think I'll tighten up maybe a little more at 100NL to begin with. I'm still killing on the button so I should continue to be aggressive there. Honestly, I feel like a big part of my run at 50NL have been the cards. We'll see what happens next ...

My cards ...

You get get cards for FTP to look like the ones I have (big and colorful) by downloading the files from the following webiste:

https://netfiles.uiuc.edu/mtmcinto/www/FTPpics/

After that, you have to do the following:

1. Go to your "Program Files" folder.

2. Go to "Full Tilt Poker" ---> "Graphics" ---> "Table" ---> "Elements"

3. Remove the old cards (cards0 - cards6, cardssmall), replace them with the new ones.

Be sure to change the "4-color deck" option on FTP back to "two-color deck" or the clubs and diamonds will not display.

Enjoy.

Dropping down in stakes for confidence ...

Sometimes it's good to drop down in stakes for confidence. I decided to play 10NL today after my rough time at 50NL. I ran well. Here are my stats:

Basically I found a table full of fish and played loose and aggressive. LOL at the big fish on my left and the big nit across from me!

Anyhow - it's back to 50NL with my newfound confidence. I know that I'm a winner at 10NL and if I ever need to drop in stakes and rebuild I can do it at that level.

Key hands:

http://www.pokerhand.org/?1079541

http://www.pokerhand.org/?1079544

http://www.pokerhand.org/?1079545

Top Set Mining = The Future

I had an idea and posted it to 2+2's BBV (Brags Beats and Variance) message board.

I think I'm going to do n = 20,000 for 100NL

I was thinking of doing that at 50NL as well ... I'm ~1000 hands away from 100NL and am deciding right now if another 10,000 hands at 50NL would be good or if I should just go straight to 100NL. I'm leaning toward the latter.

Overbetting/Zeebo

I've been messing around more with overbetting/value shoving. I've been thinking about it in terms of the Zeebo Theorem:

Zeebo Theorem - no one is capable of folding a full house. Ever.

It's kind of tongue-in-cheek, but understanding it really allows you to get paid off.

Corollary - people can't fold the nut flush either. If you have a full house and you think someone has the nut flush, just shove - they'll call.

Example:

Sun Choi (58/5/0.4) - loose passive and a pretty big loser (79 BB/100) over 289 hands.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$0.25/$0.50 Blinds
6 Players
http://www.legopoker.com/hh

Hero: $49.50
alec200: $69.50
BeeeBack: $52.90
Al3oholica: $62.90
sun choi: $75.55
Jullp: $54.25

Preflop: Hero is dealt 4c 7c (6 Players)
BeeeBack folds, Al3oholica folds, sun choi calls $0.50, Jullp folds, Hero calls $0.25, alec200 checks

74s is certainly good enough to see a flop with.

Flop: ($1.50) 6s 4s 4d (3 Players)
Hero bets $1.50, alec200 folds, sun choi calls $1.50

Bingo! Trips. Start building a pot ...

Turn: ($4.50) Ks (2 Players)
Hero bets $3, sun choi calls $3

Hmm ... flush draw out there. Let's continue betting until we are told different.

River: ($10.50) 7s (2 Players)
Hero bets all-in for $44.50, sun choi calls $44.50

Full house! Let's see ... if he's got the As he is certainly calling (cause he's a calling station). If he has like A4 or another 4 he is probably calling. Shove!

Pot Size: $99.50 ($3 Rake)

sun choi had As 9d (a flush, Ace high) and LOST (-$49.50)
Hero had 4c 7c (a full house, Fours full of Sevens) and WON (+$47)

For The Win!

Down $107 (for the challenge)

After last night. Just sick. One hand was semi-tilt. The rest you saw below. Many I didn't post because there were just so many and they were so standard.

AK < AQ AI pre-flop
AK < JJ AI pre-flop vs. aggro short stack
TT < AK AI pre-flop vs. aggro short stack
etc, etc, etc ...

AK, Semi-tilt:
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1073683


So ... what can I do? No reason to tighten up - I'm not misplaying hands. I'm not doing anything crazy. Let's see what today brings ...

One thing that I will do is institute a stop-loss policy. If I ever lose 5-buy-ins in a day I'm done for that day.

My night in a nutshell ...

Pre-flop marginal. Flop and turn expert:
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1073353

... last hand of the night:

http://www.pokerhand.org/?1073365

... pukes ...

This puts me down $92 for the challenge. Tomorrow's goal is to get back to even.

Overbetting/Value Shoving

I've been experimenting with overshoving and have had quite a bit of success. I guess no-one ever believes you have a hand. Notice what I've gotten called with:

1. http://www.pokerhand.org/?1073232

2. http://www.pokerhand.org/?1073237

3. http://www.pokerhand.org/?1073244

... it's been pretty effective so far - especially again calling stations.

Additionally, I've just been potting these guys (calling stations) on every street to build a big pot by the river.. They have no concept of odds and will chase draws.

Downswing ... so long winrate

Top set no good:
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1072283

Bottom set no good:
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1072375

Middle set no good:
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1072372

Flopped full house no good:
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1073304

Trips no good:
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1072331

6-outer for villain good:
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1072377

... and some more (can't win a race). No need to post the rest though.

cbloom's article

Very important to keep these things in mind. From 2+2. I found the "what doesn't matter" to be much more insightful that the "what does matter" section. In the end, making plays which are neutral EV will have no affect on your winrate. This is pretty important to keep in mind.

CTS on heaters/downswings

CTS, one of the players I follow and highly respect, posted about heaters/dowswings on 2+2 when asked the following question:

"How big in terms of buyins were the insanest heaters and insanest downswings?"

CTS responded:

"Kind of hard to quantify biggest heater, but I've ran at over 10ptbb/100 for 100k hands in toughish NL games.

for downswings, ive broken even / lost over 100k hands a few times, and have had a 30buyin downswing or two i think. I play a really swingy style though, a good session is +10buyins or more, and a bad one is -8buyins, anything in between is, meh."

I found to be pretty insightful - whenever he's posted numbers they are always sick good so it's good to know that even the great players have their valleys and plateaus.

Halfway point of 50NL

Variance galore (see previous post), but I think I'm playing well.


Ugh:
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1067559

Villain read my soul. I put him on JJ or AK and hoped he would read my weak river bet as weakness and push. I ALMOST just shoved the river. Lesson learned: I'm just shoving from now on.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1068207

LOL variance ...

http://www.pokerhand.org/?1066223

Day 3 of 50NL

I'm a quarter of the way done with the level. So far, I haven't been really impressed with anyone's play there. A lot of standard TAG players (bet when they have something, fold when they don't) and loose-passive players (call, call, call).

Any King and any flush calls my river shove:
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1064805

Check, Call, Lead is correct here:
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1064813

Getting max value? I don't think he calls a river shove:
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1064817

Day 2 of 50NL

Here are my 2-day totals. I'm 1233 hands in:

Some Hands:

99 ... is he really potting trip tens here?
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1060178

Qd9d. I could re-raise flop, but the guy is crazy. I'm exercising pot control by calling.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1060181

KQo vs. same villain. I choose to go the low variance route and fold.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1060192

Loose, aggro guy raises, TAG calls. Sounds like it's time to ... squeeze with 9h6h:
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1060185

Cardcare's 100K

Cardcare posted his PT numbers from 600NL and 1000NL. I wanted to compare them with my own numbers from 25NL:
Some key differences:

1. He folds his BB significantly less than I do.

2. His "Won $ WSF%" (Won $ When Seeing Flop %) is around 15% higher than mine. This is significant.

3. My "Won $ at SD%" (Won $ at Show Down %) is around 12% higher than his.

4. We raise about the same, but he plays much looser (VPIP) than I do.

Anyhow ... his numbers are something I am going to come back to throughout the challenge. The guy is clearly a winner so it's interesting to see the differences/similarities in our pre-flop game.

Highlights of the discussion that followed his post:

"MT Ratio is 4.98. NL 600 was 4-6 tables only, NL 1000 with 6-8 tables."

"Perhaps the SB is my favourite position to squeeze and I openraise alot out of teh SB."

Deception/Pot Control

I like a check in postion here:
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1056528

Why?

FollowFanfare runs at 23/20. He's going to be calling me with all sorts of hands like 8's, 7's, and 10's. By checking the flop I control the size and really underrepresent my hand. Notice what he called me with at the end.

1st Day of 50NL

I played for 1.5 hours (5.41 MT Ratio). Overall, I'm very happy with my play. There is a big difference right off the bat in how loose the players are pre-flop. They are a lot tighter at 50NL. I also tightened up a bit.

The shorter session was good too.

A Few Hands.

I like a check here more so than a blocker bet. When he shoved I knew I was good.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1056525

Here, I like a check on the turn as well. River shove is expert :)
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1056530

A float! I like raising the turn here to rep a big ace. His bet screams weakness.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1056538

Here I wasn't bluffing ... I was value betting. Player was crazy.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1056581

... and your obligatory cooler:
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1056534

After review ... a plan for 50NL

5 Things Which To Work on at 50NL:

1. Continue playing very loose from the button - it's a good $$ spot for me.
2. Tighten up in the CO with a looser player on the button. Change tables maybe?
3. Play between 4-8 tables. 6 is ideal.
4. Play more carefull with AK. Don't stack off pre-flop at this limit unless it's against a huge donk (VPIP > 40, PFR > 20).
5. Increase my WTS % to > 30%. This might mean I will have to tighten up more in MP and CO.

That's a start ... I'll evaluate this after 2,000 hands.

Done with 25NL

Ugh ... what a way to go out:

Here I make the right read and lose. Ugh.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1053315

I'm pretty frustrated with myself. I feel like I should be able to beat 25NL at a much higher rate. On some level, I want to do another 10K hands and see what happens. Anyhow, here is my graph:


So much variance ... it's no good. I think my biggest heater was 8 buy-ins and my biggest downswing was 4 buy-ins. In the end, I just don't think I gave my 100% to the level which caused all the swings. Now ... some facts:

Top 5 Moneymakers:

1. AA (by far). I've had it 55 times for $273.90
2. AQo. 76 times for $80.25
3. KQs. 38 times for $76.95
4. KK. 53 times for $63.15 - lost 9 of them
5. TT. 47 times for $54.45

Top 5 Losers:

1. 65s. -$49.60
2. AKs. - $45.90
3. AJs. -$33.95
4. JJ. -$30.15
5. 54o. -$29.95

And the postion stats:


As you can see, I made most of my $$ from the button and UTG. It looks like my leaks are from the CO and MP. I will def tighten up in 2nd position. My SB/BB play seems ok.

Also, Brian Rue mentioned that the Went to SD % should be over 30%. This is only happening for me in the UTG position. Maybe I just need to tighten up in general and work on getting that number up by playing better quality hands.

So ... if someone's WTS% is high, you can't bluff them. It looks like I'm very bluffable though. Another thing to work on.

I also paid $238 in rake. This is more than I made. GG FTP.

Break Even stretch ...

Just not hitting the hands ...

Fold River?
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1051707

Fold River:
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1051708